MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL PA / WRN MD PANHANDLE / ERN WV
   PANHANDLE...
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 141139Z - 141745Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT FROM
   S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO ERN WV OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.  SNOWFALL
   RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT CYCLOGENESIS
   IS UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN NC ATTM...MUCH IN LINE WITH SCENARIO DEPICTED
   BY 06Z ETA RUN.  THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
   MOVE NWD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY 14/18Z...WITH INTENSIFYING
   ESELY LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW.
   
   VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WIDESPREAD / MODERATE TO HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION. AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM FROM S-N ACROSS THIS
   REGION...EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...ELY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   UPSLOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
   COOLING TO OFFSET THE WARM ADVECTION...ALLOWING THE LOWER
   TROPOSPHERE TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM THE APPALACHIAN FRONT WWD.
    THEREFORE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH 1 TO
   LOCALLY 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6
   HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 12/14/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   
   41397737 41327673 40847628 39847774 39077829 39027894
   39417969 40587893